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Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Stay tuned to WKBN for the latest on tropical storm Nicole.The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.Ī tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. The rainfall timing and amounts will become more clear in the next couple of days. European forecast model Future rainfall totals from the European forecast model through Saturday morning. American Forecast Model Future rainfall totals from the American forecast model through Saturday evening. The forecasted rainfall totals from both of these models are shown below. The main difference is between the European forecast model (shown above) and the American forecast model. However, there are other models that have the phase occurring later which could limit rainfall totals across the area. If it happens early (like in the video), then rain will be likely across the Valley. The amount of rainfall produced by Nicole will depend on how quickly Nicole phases with the cold front. The Storm Team 27 Future Tracker shows the phase of the low pressure system and Nicole below Storm Team 27 Future Tracker showing the phase between Nicole and cold front. How much rain? Well, that much is uncertain at this point. The cold front from the low pressure system out west will phase with Nicole and bring rain chances to the Valley on Friday for Veteran’s day. While the low pressure center of Nicole is going to race well off to the east, another storm system to the north and west will merge with Nicole and bring some impacts to the Valley. What does this mean for Ohio and Pennsylvania? Spaghetti plot models through Saturday morning of Nicole’s track. Notice that most of the tracks have Nicole along the Georgia/South Carolina border by Saturday morning. The image below is called a “Spaghetti Plot” and it shows all of the different forecast model tracks of Nicole through Saturday morning. Right now, the forecast models are in fantastic agreement that Nicole will spend a brief amount of time over the Gulf of Mexico before quickly accelerating up the coast of the eastern United States. The aforementioned storm system will result in a northeast acceleration of Nicole up the eastern coast of the United States. However, a strong low pressure system in the northern Great Plains will begin to make an impact on the path of Nicole. Nicole will push further west into the Gulf of Mexico during the day on Thursday where it will try to regain some of its strength. The overview of the forecasted path from the National Hurricane Center is shown below: The forecasted path of Nicole thru Thursday afternoon. Then, it will weaken to a tropical storm and make landfall along the western coast of Florida late Wednesday night into the day on Thursday. Right now, Nicole is forecasted to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane during the day on Wednesday. Nicole will continue to move west due to a high pressure system that will strengthen to the north and east of the storm.

The wind shear will decrease over the next couple of days and this will allow thunderstorms to form over Nicole’s center which will strengthen the storm.Ĭurrent satellite conditions for tropical storm Nicole. There is significant vertical wind shear that is limiting Nicole’s strength. Current conditions for NicoleĬurrently, Nicole is a weak tropical system with sustained winds of 40 knots. Nicole will transition into a purely tropical system within the next 24 hours. Occasionally, a storm will exist that is somewhere in between tropical and extratropical. However, meteorology does not exist in a box and the difference between extratropical and tropical storms exists on a spectrum. Tropical cyclones have warm air in the center and do not have a cold or warm front. Extratropical cyclones are the ones that usually affect our part of the world with cold air at the center and cold/warm fronts. What is a subtropical storm? Well, there are two main categories of cyclones: extratropical and tropical.

Couple charged following alert from children’s hospitalįirst of all, Nicole is *technically* a subtropical storm.